作者：成马纯 来源：原创 发布日期：08-26
一 | "Given that energy is the lifeline of modern economies, modern economic growth patterns, there are not that many alternatives available and there are only a few countries that are players in the global energy market. Russia certainly cannot be counted out and Russia cannot be marginalized in the global energy landscape," says Harsh V. Pant, professor of international relations at the King's College London India Institute and director of the strategic studies program at the Observer Research Foundation.,International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol and US Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm on 12 July urged Indo-Pacific countries at the Sydney Energy Forum to diversify their supply chains for energy and critical minerals to reduce "dependency" on Russia over its special operation in Ukraine, as well as on China.,"At a time when the energy prices are going up and affecting some of the poorest and most vulnerable countries around the world very significantly, I think Asian countries will continue to cooperate with Russia in order to support their economies and their domestic requirements," says Pant.,He explains that dealing with Russia has become an economic imperative at a time of energy crunch given that Moscow is offering discounted oil to a number of countries. Furthermore, maintaining economic relations with Russia is a question of survival and the people's well-being for some Asian nations and countries of the Global South, according to the professor. Under these circumstances it's highly unlikely that they will succumb to the pressure from Washington and sever ties with Russia, he says.,"For political leaders across the world, at a time when economies are just beginning to grow after the long COVID pandemic, they can [not] afford a lack of energy and higher energy prices," Pant stresses.,Russia, Venezuela to Expand Oil Sector Cooperation, Working on Pact to Circumvent Western Sanctions4 July, 11:15 GMT,Anti-Russia Sanctions: India and EU Approaches,To illustrate his point, the professor cites India's approach to Russia's affairs and the Ukraine crisis. New Delhi continues to import energy from Russia despite the US and Europe urging India to join sweeping anti-Russia sanctions.,"What we have seen in the last two months is a gradual, significant increase in what India is buying from Russia when it comes to oil," the professor says. "This is particularly relevant again because Russia has offered India discounted oil and India's economic requirements demand that India continues buying this oil. The challenges facing India's population mean that the Indian leadership has an incentive in continuing to engage with Russia on this question.",At the same time, the European Union's decision to slap sanctions on Russia and slash energy supplies from the country have backfired on Europe's economy, sending fuel prices up and accelerating inflation.,"We have seen how Europe is struggling to reduce its dependence and the kind of costs that it is imposing on Europeans," says Pant. "Most Asian countries would be reluctant to go down that route.",Brussels: Anti-Russia Sanctions Raise Questions About Sustainability of EU's Financial Model 10 June, 08:44 GMT,The disruptions in the supply of crude after the imposition of ban on imports from Russia have given a dramatic boost to energy prices and inflation, echoes Suranjali Tandon, assistant professor at the Delhi-based National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.,"The current inflationary trends are the most serious challenge for policy makers," she says. "Central banks around the world have begun the process of unwinding loose monetary policy… The current inflation rates have led to internal economic strains and as seen in Sri Lanka, a political upheaval. The cooperation between Russia and Asian countries may be economically prudent.",Moreover, major Asian economies – India and China – are ready to absorb crude supplies from Russia rejected by the West, according to her.,At the same time, Washington's plan to force Asian states to join anti-Russia sanctions is fraught with severe risks for the global economy, Tandon warns.,"The ban, if carried out by other Asian economies, will further cut off supplies of refined petroleum and related products," she says. "This could lead to an unmanageable inflationary spiral while depressing global growth.",Lithium, Gold & Rare Earths: How China May Open the Door to New Business Opportunities for Afghans19 August 2021, 08:38 GMT,Are There Alternatives to Russia & China?,According to Tandon, India sets an important precedent for other Asian states by withstanding the US pressure when it comes to energy sanctions against Russia. By doing this, India is defending its internal interests in the first place, the professor underscores.,She hails the idea that single technology or fuel dependence should be avoided. This principle could be applied to Russia, China, or Western countries in a similar way. However, when the West is calling upon Asian nations to shift to wind, solar, and even nuclear power and abandon fossil fuels, it's clear that this shift cannot be done immediately, the professor emphasizes.,Even after the "green" transition, Asian states and the Global South are likely to maintain ties with Russia and China, who have been developing cutting-edge nuclear technologies and mining rare earths needed for producing electric batteries and electronic components.,"Russia's energy supplies will remain globally important," Tandon forecasts. "More importantly, even when this transition does take place the natural resources including minerals used as inputs in renewables will be concentrated in countries like China. China produces 63% of the world’s rare earth elements, including 45% of molybdenum as per IEA, so it's unclear what countries must do to expand alternatives while being under pressure to transition quickly."。
二 | 一、序 10月16日，市面上一则关于新加坡主权基金GIC在美国起诉国内造车新势力蔚来汽车“证券欺诈”的消息开始发酵，将蔚来推向了风口浪尖。 这不是一场关于车或技术的官司，而是一场关于“控制权”与“财务边界”的博弈。 在这起今年8月发起的诉讼中，GIC指控蔚来通过BaaS模式和复杂的集团架构隐藏了对其电池公司蔚能的实质控制，从而通过财务技术调整使得“营收虚增”，误导投资人并给其造成了重大投资损失。 无独有偶，GIC的诉讼论点更早则可以追溯回2022年知名做空机构灰熊针对蔚来发布的做空报告以及同年蔚来遭遇的投资者集体诉讼。 这一系列争议与产品无关，与安全无关，而是一个更抽象的问题： “蔚来，是否真的不控制它的电池公司——蔚能？” 这颗子弹飞了也快一周，今天我们就来仔细挖掘下这场诉讼背后的深层原因与核心逻辑。 二、案件核心：控制的边界在哪里？ 这场争议的焦点是两个关键词：BaaS模式与企业控制权。 从GIC的视角来看，蔚来通过“Battery as a Service（BaaS）”模式设立蔚能科技，将电池资产剥离出表，看似减少了负债、改善了财务指标，但实际上蔚来仍在通过复杂的股权安排、采购合同和资金支持等方式，对蔚能保持实质性控制。 而一旦蔚来实际仍然控制蔚能，则蔚来与蔚能应当在财务上合并报表，蔚来向蔚能出售电池的行为就不能按照蔚来现在的一次性计提收入的方式来统计营收，而应当按照蔚能实际租出电池以后每个月收取租金来计算租金收入。 不同的确认口径，财务结果会天差地别。 换句话说，GIC认为，蔚来没有真正放手，却在账面上假装放手。 从GIC的视角来看，蔚来就是将未来很多年的持续性收入一口气在当下进行了提前一次性计提，使得蔚来本身的营收暴涨，违反了财务规则，是对投资者的“证券欺诈”行为——这恐怕也和GIC投资蔚来多年发现高位站岗，收益损失惨重有关（蔚来的股票从彼时巅峰时期的60多美元跌到如今大约6美元）。
三 | 而蔚来的回应同样逻辑严密： 蔚能有独立股东（宁德时代、国投电力、湖北科技投资等），业务和治理均独立运作，蔚来持股仅19%，BaaS模式是新能源汽车产业的创新尝试，并非财务造假或欺诈，因此蔚来将电池卖给其本身无法控制的蔚能，完全可以按照常规的一次性计提收入方式来统计营收口径。 两方的矛盾，集中在了蔚来对蔚能是否达到实质性的控制，进而应当被合并报表。
四 | 而在会计与法律的世界里，控制权并不等同于持股比例，它可能隐藏在合同、采购权、资金支持甚至是品牌绑定之中。此时，“控制”不是简单的股权比例或营收统计的数字游戏，而是对谁有权做决定、谁承担风险、谁享受收益的判断。
五 | 三、BaaS模式：模式创新还是财务魔术？ 要理解蔚来的困境，必须先看清BaaS模式的逻辑。 传统车企售车时，整车成本中很大一块是电池。蔚来选择将电池销售给蔚能（由蔚能持有电池资产），再由蔚能“租”给车主，车主仅购买“车身”，并按月付租。
六 | 这种模式的初衷非常明确： 减轻蔚来资产负担（不再背负庞大库存与折旧）； 吸引资本进入能源网络（蔚能可独立融资，事实上目前它也确实吸引了很多外部投资人）； 对车主来说，购买整车的成本进一步降低； 提高用户粘性（车主长期绑定服务体系）； 给蔚能带来良好的现金流，对车主来说几乎可以认为是终身订阅电池并付费。 在商业逻辑上，BaaS模式是一次巧妙且多方共赢的尝试。
七 | 事实上，根据一些公开信息与报道，包括德意志银行、摩根士丹利和摩根大通在内的多家顶级投行都公开表示不支持灰熊对于蔚来BaaS模式的指控，认为做空报告是对BaaS商业模式的“严重误解”，并指出剥离重资产进行独立运营是资本密集型行业的常见策略。 如果我们拆开来看BaaS，其本质是将重资产剥离和出表，达到财务上的优化。这种模式并非罕见。 在全球范围内，几乎所有资本密集行业都尝试过“资产剥离”的结构创新与成熟解决方案，例如： 通信行业：中国移动、中国联通等国内运营商将塔资源剥离至“中国铁塔”，随后铁塔公司港股上市并向三大运营商回租，是典型的“资产剥离—出表—专业化运营—回租”模式，最终实现共享运营，同时治理结构、风险分担和收益分配均明确划分，避免“表面剥离、实质控制”的争议。
八 | 航空业：各大航空公司通过售后回租（sale-leaseback）方式剥离飞机资产，改善资产负债表，但合同期限、租赁责任均严格披露。 能源业：壳牌、BP等通过SPV管理油气资产，但SPV往往有独立管理人、外部融资与清晰治理边界。 这些案例表明，资产剥离本身并非问题，模糊的控制权边界才是风险。
九 | 换言之，BaaS模式本身并不是这次诉讼挑战的重点，并非像一些报道认为的BaaS模式本身遭受质疑。 穿透BaaS，作为底层资产的电池到底归属于谁，才是问题的核心。
十 | 是独立第三方的蔚能，还是披着“蔚能”外衣的蔚来？ 在蔚来的BaaS模式中，如果治理、风险与收益的划分不够清晰，再好的结构也可能被误读为“粉饰报表”。 这正是GIC认为蔚来“美化财务结构”的核心所在。即便从表面上看，蔚能的股权架构非常分散，最大单一股东蔚来的持股也不超过20%，但如果电池的持有与经营仍由蔚来主导采购、定价、回购甚至兜底，那蔚能是否真的可称之为独立？ 如果最终被判定如此，那表面上是轻资产，实质上只是重资产的轻包装罢了。
十一 | 四、会计并表的生死线：蔚来与蔚能的隐形边界 如上所述，我们把争议的焦点穿透了BaaS模式，推进到了蔚来与蔚能的控制权关系，更进一步而言，就是蔚来与蔚能是否要在财务会计上并表。 在会计与审计领域，判断一个实体是否需要并入报表，关键不在于持股比例，而在于“控制权的实质”。 以国内企业更为熟悉的VIE架构为例，VIE架构中的WFOE与VIE公司之间本身的股权是完全隔离的，并不持有股权，但WFOE仍然可以通过一系列控制协议（包括独家购买权协议、独家业务合作协议等）来实质上控制VIE公司，达到将VIE公司并入集团公司报表的目的。 因为蔚来在美股上市，所以必须遵守美国会计准则（US GAAP）。这意味着，这场官司的实质，是US GAAP中“控制”的定义与蔚来商业架构的现实之间的碰撞。 因此我们要看看美国的会计准则US GAAP是怎么来判断“控制”的，尤其是针对“可变利益实体”（Variable Interest Entity， VIE）的章节。 在此规则下，一个企业是否应当将另一实体并入报表，要看是否为其“主要受益方”（Primary Beneficiary）。
十二 | 判断主要依据两个维度： 1. 权力：即谁决定关键经营活动，是否拥有对该实体“最重要经营活动”的决策权（如预算、投资、采购、销售策略）。
十三 | 例如，蔚来是否决定蔚能的换电网络布局、定价机制、电池采购标准？这些权力是否实质上掌握在蔚来（而非蔚能）手中？ 2. 经济利益：即谁享受大部分经济利益，是否承担该实体的主要风险并享受其主要收益（如提供担保、承担亏损、享受现金流）。 如果一家公司同时满足这两项条件（Power + Economics），即使它股权占比很低，也有可能需要在财报中并表。 至此，我们通过层层拆解，把GIC与蔚来对簿公堂的核心逻辑梳理了出来，这场纷争从“证券欺诈”、“虚增营收”的指控开始，穿透BaaS的业务模式，最终回归到会计并表口径与企业控制权的问题上。 对于蔚来案件来说，由于公开可查询到的信息并不足以支撑起完整的证据链，对于我们这些“围观群众”来说，自然是难以对此下一个判断的。 不过，也许我们可以多问几个问题，例如： 蔚来是否通过购电协议和换电网络绑定了蔚能？ 蔚能的核心资金是否仍来自蔚来？ 蔚能的盈利模式是否依赖蔚来车辆销量？ 蔚能是否向蔚来承担了明示或隐形的回购义务或隐形担保？ 蔚能本身的换电费用、电池租赁收入在多大程度上受到蔚来的影响？ 蔚能是否与蔚来达成任何排他的、独家的强制性安排？ 如果答案大都偏向“是”，那么无论股权比例如何，蔚能在会计上确有可能被视为蔚来的延伸，进而导致蔚来的营业收入需要颠覆性的重新评估，其财务情况与市场估值都将迎来重塑。 五、结语 从2022年灰熊的做空报告到现在，蔚来已经就本文提到的问题遭遇过多次挑战：2022年，蔚来就遭受了投资人的集体诉讼，但并未有什么明确的结论；2025年8月，GIC少见地亲自下场起诉蔚来，但目前法院以2022年的集体诉讼尚未有结论为由中止了GIC的此轮诉讼。 蔚来BaaS模式的价值毋庸置疑：它确实降低了整车成本，提升了现金流效率，也推动了换电生态的扩张。问题在于，它能像其他重资产行业的“前辈”一样走出一条市场广泛认可且合规的路径吗？ 未来，无论这起案件的结果如何，它都将成为一个新的参照： 企业可以如何设计资产剥离与融资结构； 审计与监管机构又将如何定义“实质控制”； 投资人如何理解“出表”背后的风险。 这不仅是简单的财务技术问题，而是交织了架构、控制权、资产剥离与重组以及商业诉求的矛盾螺旋。
十四 | 本文来自微信公众号：逍遥法外夏洛克，作者：夏洛克。
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